The US-Iran ceasefire is disintegrating as the US claims to have broken the Iranian grip on the Strait of Hormuz, something which Iran says it will fight all-out to retain. Both countries know that the winner and loser in the US-Iran war will be determined largely by who has gained long-term control of this chokepoint for world energy supplies.

Either the shipping lane in and out of the Gulf is open under US military protection or it is not. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said today that “the lane is clear” because of operation “Project Freedom” with 1,550 vessels manned by 22,500 crew lining up to exit the Gulf where they have been since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

Hegseth said the ceasefire was still in place and the US is “not looking for a fight”, but Iran “cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway”. Yet, the Iranian blockade of the strait will only end if the US permanently deploys powerful air and naval forces to stop Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping using drones, missiles, mines and torpedoes. Confusingly, Hegseth said the operation was “temporary in duration”, suggesting that the US may not after all try to deprive Iran of its stranglehold on a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas exports.

“We are just getting........

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