As the 30-year term of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh approaches its conclusion, discussions about its future are gathering momentum. Much of the public debate is about whether the treaty will be renewed or revised. But a more consequential question is, what kind of agreement will it be? The political, institutional and ecological conditions that produced the 1996 treaty are vastly different. The negotiations are likely to be about much more than water sharing at Farakka.

The 1996 treaty had a single-point agenda of water sharing, following India’s decision to build the Farakka barrage. The treaty provided a flow-dependent water-sharing arrangement that includes a 50:50 pro-rata sharing when the flows at Farakka dip below a limit. Bangladesh has often expressed its dissatisfaction about not receiving its due share during the dry seasons.

The next Ganga Treaty is not likely to be restricted to this one specific transborder issue. It will transcend territories and borders, within and outside, enlarging the scope of negotiations. The negotiations will be challenging, especially given the new political realities in Bangladesh. But they can also offer new opportunities for robust water diplomacy and enduring relations between India and Bangladesh.

There are two reasons why the negotiations will have an expanded agenda.

First, politics have become more complex. The 1996 treaty, signed after decades of deliberations, reflected a particular political moment of relatively stable bilateral relations. The treaty emerged from sustained Track 1 and Track 2 engagements that built trust and goodwill. Today, the negotiations are likely to be shaped as much by domestic political dynamics as by bilateral diplomatic........

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