Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched a sweeping joint military operation — codenamed “Operation Epic Fury” by Washington and “Roaring Lion” by Tel Aviv — striking targets across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and several other Iranian cities. Iran has confirmed that its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been killed. The attacks came barely two days after US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman, that had seemed on the verge of a breakthrough. In retrospect, these talks seem to be a cover for the mobilisation of military power around Iran. Statements from President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that the goal was not a diplomatic settlement of the nuclear dispute but the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Regime change in Tehran — long discussed in Washington and Tel Aviv — gained renewed intensity after the anti-regime protests that swept Iran at the turn of the year. Although Trump had promised the protestors that “help was on the way”, he had refrained from intervention then.

The latest attacks signal a decisive shift. The combination of aerial strikes and internal sabotage targeted the system’s core pillars. Eighty-six-year-old Khamenei has dominated the Islamic Republic’s hierarchy — first as president from 1981 and, since 1989, as the successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. He steered the regime through multiple crises, relying on repression internally and activist policies across the region. Few tears will be shed for Khamenei but his killing does not automatically mean the fall of the regime. The Islamic Republic is deeply entrenched. Historical experience shows that regime change is far simpler to declare than to achieve. US interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya were disastrous, and offer little confidence that a rapid or orderly transition in Iran can be engineered from the outside.

The entire region, with America’s Gulf allies also under Iranian missile attack, is at a perilous moment. Much will depend on developments within Iran — whether large numbers take to the streets, whether elements of the establishment defect, and whether a viable alternative leadership emerges, either from within the current system or among exiles such as Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah. Failure to produce a coherent successor authority could open the door to prolonged strife or even fragmentation along ethnic lines. For India, the implications are immediate and serious: The safety of nearly 10 million members of the diaspora, potential disruption of air links, and the possibility of a sharp spike in oil prices. For now, Delhi, which has good ties with most of the Gulf countries under attack today, can only watch closely. India’s foreign-policy establishment must urgently reflect on the long-term consequences. Just as the violent birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979 transformed India’s regional environment, its potential collapse could be equally consequential. Trump and Netanyahu have wielded a sledgehammer. Do they have the patience — or inclination — for repair that has to follow the shattering? The evidence from Gaza and Ukraine is dispiriting.

© Indian Express