From military regime to the 2026 elections: The transformation of state, society and international power balances in Brazil.

  The second round of the Brazilian presidential election, scheduled for October 25, 2026, raises not only the possibility of a change of power but also a broader debate about the political and geopolitical future of Latin America. While the rivalry between Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro initially appears to be a traditional struggle between right and left-wing politics, its historical roots extend to the economic hierarchies formed during the colonial era, the tradition of military rule, the structural problems of the democratization process, and international power competition. In the first round of the presidential election held on October 4, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03% of the votes, while Lula da Silva received 45.16%. The 1.87-point difference between the two candidates demonstrates the extent to which political polarization in Brazilian society is reflected in the election results. While other candidates Augusto Cury received 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, and Ronaldo Caiado 2.18% of the vote, the combined vote share of the two main candidates reached 92.19%. This picture reveals that the political competition is concentrated around two powerful blocs. Public opinion polls before the second round present a similar picture. In the RealTime Big Data poll dated October 20, Flávio Bolsonaro received 52% support and Lula 48%, while in the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll dated October 19, these rates were measured as 51.1% and 48.9%, respectively. In the BTG/Nexus poll released on the same date, Bolsonaro was at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7%. Considering the differences and margins of error between the polls, it is not possible to say that the election result is certain. However, these figures show the extent to which the political struggle in Brazil is conducted within a narrow range of votes. To understand the reasons for this political polarization, it is necessary to look at Brazil's historical state structure. Portuguese colonialism, which began in 1500, led to the concentration of economic power in a narrow segment of society through large landowners and production relations based on slave labor. The abolition of slavery in 1888 and the proclamation of the republic in 1889 did not completely eliminate these historical power relations. While the political regime changed, economic and social hierarchies largely remained in place. Getúlio Vargas's rise to power in 1930 marked a significant turning point in terms of state-led industrialization and the strengthening of centralized administration. However, economic modernization did not always go hand in hand with democratization. The military coup of 1964 marked the beginning of a period in Brazilian politics where state authority was redefined. The military rule, which lasted until 1985, generated political legitimacy through rhetoric of national security and the fight against communism. The US support for the military intervention under Cold War conditions demonstrates that Brazil's internal political developments were not........

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