Ask anyone from the valley whether the economy is growing and the answer rarely matches the statistics. Both can be right. Economics separates what an economy produces from what a household can actually buy with what it earns, and the gap between the two is where the current argument sits.

Let’s begin with the official account, because it is not a bleak one. The Jammu and Kashmir Economic Survey 2025-26 estimates real GSDP growth of 5.82 per cent and per capita income of Rs 1,68,243, and shows J&K’s per capita income rising from 71.9 per cent of the national figure in 2014-15 to about 76.5 per cent. That convergence is real and deserves credit. Yet the same document puts India’s real growth at 7.4 per cent, so the Union Territory is still growing more slowly than the country it is trying to catch.

Purchasing power, though, is income measured against the price level. In plain terms, it is how much rice, fuel and rent a month’s earnings will cover. The Survey’s per capita figure is nominal, and it is an average. Two things can go wrong between that average and a household’s shopping basket: prices can outrun incomes, or incomes can fail to reach the household at all. The valley faces both risks.

Take prices first. The Survey reports inflation easing from 4.5 per cent in 2024 to 3.8 per cent in 2025. That relief has not lasted. On the Ministry of Statistics’ new price........

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