Expectations of high and sustained snowfall during the preceding winter season were largely unmet across the Kashmir region. The winter remained predominantly dry during Chillai Kalan (the severe winter period) until 23 January, with snowfall events being small, irregular, and spatially uneven. Towards the end of Chillai Kalan, an episode of uneven heavy snowfall resulted in substantial accumulation exceeding 2-3 feet on the Pir Panjal side, while the Greater Himalayan side received considerably lower amounts. The central plains of the Kashmir valley experienced negligible or no snowfall and accumulation at all. Subsequent snowfall events later in the season also remained below normal. Consequently, overall snow accumulation across the region was critically low, consistent with broader trends observed across the Himalaya. Moreover, a limited snowmelt produced only a short-term increase in river flows, while the overall River and stream discharge remained persistently low. So, this pattern raises concerns over long-term water availability, as supplies are likely to fall short of seasonal demand, posing serious challenges for agriculture and water resource management in the coming months.

At the same time, exceptionally warm conditions recorded across Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh reflect clear signals of climate change-induced warming. Record-high temperatures, with departures approaching 10 °C from long-term averages and widespread positive anomalies across elevations, indicate that this warming is regional and systemic rather than driven by localized or short-lived weather events. The persistence of above-normal temperatures from the Jammu plains to the high-altitude, cold-arid regions of Kashmir and Ladakh region points to a rising baseline temperature across the entire region. Such early-season and winter warming aligns with long-term Himalayan........

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