Ever since the government released the estimates of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal year on August 31, claims and counterclaims have been made regarding the veracity of the data. The controversy arose after a former senior official of the government claimed that the latest numbers were dressed up to show that economic growth in the first quarter was 7.8%, but in reality, the economy may not have grown at all!

To make their point, critics alluded to two estimates of India’s GDP in the first quarter of 2025-26 the government had released—first, at the end of August 2025; and again, on August 31, 2026. While the data released in August 2025 showed that the country’s GDP during April to June of 2025 was Rs 86.1 trillion, measured in terms of the market prices prevailing then (or, in “current prices”), the revised estimates of August 31 sharply reduced this figure to Rs 80 trillion. India’s GDP in April to June 2026 was estimated at Rs 88.3 trillion in current prices, and the government used the revised estimate of Rs 80 trillion to show that the GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of this fiscal year was 10.3% in current prices. The annual inflation was projected at 2.5%, which meant that if the effects of inflation were removed, the “real” GDP growth claimed by the government in the April-June quarter was 7.8%. However, critics argued that if last year’s estimate of Rs 86.1 trillion was considered instead, the GDP........

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