The crypto industry and prediction markets share a mission of disruption—but it’s not clear where crypto fits in

Polymarket and Kalshi exploded on the scene just before the 2024 Presidential election. Since then, the firms have notched respective valuations of $15 billion and $22 billion, and prediction markets have emerged as a major new player in finance, gaming, and media. The upstart industry also has deep roots in crypto.

Crypto and prediction markets have a lot in common: Both industries operate at the regulatory frontier, and are looking to disrupt deeply entrenched incumbents. There is also a spiritual connection. Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan took part in Ethereum’s pre-sale when he was just 15, and he built his platform on blockchain rails. Kalshi is not crypto native but has spent the last two years trying to acquire bona fides in the industry.

All of this suggests crypto is a large and growing part of the prediction market landscape. Big blockchain players, including Coinbase and Robinhood, certainly view events contracts as their home turf. “The crypto world feels it is on their land,” Dustin Gouker, who writes a newsletter on prediction........

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