The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 placed Syria on the brink of historic transformation. With the collapse of previous military and political structures, opposition groups — especially Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — have attempted to fill the power vacuum and form an inclusive government.

However, this fragile process faces two major threats: relentless Israeli attacks on Syrian infrastructure and HTS’s inability to provide security and political governance. Israel, having carried out over 500 airstrikes since the fall of Damascus, has effectively dismantled Syria’s defensive capacity, with what some now call the “Hiroshima of Tartus” leaving vast destruction along the coastal areas.

At the same time, HTS, burdened by an extremist past and lacking experience in governance, has failed to earn public trust or ensure the stability required for a political transition. Israel’s repeated strikes, combined with HTS’s failure in governance and security, have placed Syria’s transition in jeopardy and thrown serious obstacles in the path of forming a stable and inclusive state.

Israel’s large-scale strikes on Syria following the fall of Assad’s regime have been unprecedented in intensity, reducing both military and civilian infrastructure to ruins. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Israel has launched more than 500 airstrikes since December 2024, targeting missile bases, weapons depots, naval facilities, and even civilian infrastructure such as the ports of Tartus and Latakia.

These attacks, which Israel claims are intended to prevent armed groups from acquiring advanced weaponry, have in effect brought Syria’s defensive capabilities to zero. Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Observatory, described these strikes as “the most intense since the civil war began in 2011,” warning that “Syria’s national sovereignty is being systematically violated.”

The widespread devastation — labeled by some as the “Hiroshima of Tartus” due to its scale and severity — has had catastrophic consequences for Syria’s political transition. The destruction of military equipment, including fighter jets and air defense systems, has not only stripped Syria of the ability to defend against external threats but has also crippled any efforts to rebuild a cohesive national army. This vulnerability has weakened the new ruling authorities and eroded public confidence in their ability to establish order. Moreover, Israeli strikes on non-military infrastructure, such as economic facilities and ports, have deepened the humanitarian crisis and complicated reconstruction efforts. These repeated violations of sovereignty have not only obstructed the formation of an inclusive government but have also fueled widespread anger and humiliation among Syrians, laying the groundwork for further instability.

Alongside the Israeli assaults, the failure of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham to provide political leadership and security is another major barrier to Syria’s political transition. HTS, which emerged from the extremist roots of Jabhat al-Nusra, has become a dominant force in certain regions of Syria following the fall of Damascus. However, it faces numerous challenges that seriously limit its ability to lead an inclusive government.

The first challenge is a lack of legitimacy among Syria’s diverse groups. HTS’s extremist background — particularly its historical ties to al-Qaeda — has led many Syrians, especially ethnic and religious minorities like Alawites, Christians, and Kurds, to distrust its intentions. HTS’s attempts to present a more moderate image, including promises by Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Jolani) to form an inclusive government, have been met with skepticism. UN reports indicate that HTS has a history of human rights abuses in areas under its control, such as Idlib, including arbitrary arrests and suppression of dissent. This track record has weakened public trust in the group’s ability to govern democratically and inclusively.

The second challenge is HTS’s failure to provide security, especially in the face of Israeli airstrikes. The absence of a unified military force and the destruction of defensive infrastructure by Israel have left HTS incapable of defending Syrian territory. This weakness has not only damaged its credibility among Syrians but also opened the door for rival groups like the Syrian National Army to expand their influence. These internal rivalries have heightened the risk of further fragmentation and prolonged political chaos.

The combination of Israeli strikes and HTS’s ineffectiveness has placed Syria’s political transition under severe threat. The creation of an inclusive government requires security, public trust, and cooperation among Syria’s diverse factions. But Israel’s actions — through the destruction of infrastructure and violation of sovereignty — have made such stability nearly impossible. Meanwhile, HTS’s extremist legacy and failure to manage the crisis have prevented it from fostering an inclusive political dialogue.

This situation brings multifaceted dangers. First, continued Israeli attacks could inflame anti-Israeli sentiment among Syrians and empower extremist groups, further fueling instability. Second, HTS’s inability to establish order could lead to the rise of local warlords or rival groups, each claiming control over parts of the country. Such a scenario would increase the risk of Syria’s fragmentation and its transformation into a proxy war battlefield. Third, the humanitarian crisis resulting from infrastructure destruction and mass displacement has delayed reconstruction and the return of refugees, further diminishing hopes for a better future.

In addition, the crisis has regional and international repercussions. Neighboring countries like Turkey and Jordan — already hosting millions of Syrian refugees — are suffering from Syria’s prolonged instability. Global powers, including the United States and Russia, are also facing new challenges in managing their influence in the region. Meanwhile, Israel, through its continued military actions, not only undermines regional security but also exposes itself to growing international criticism and diplomatic isolation.

Syria stands at one of the most sensitive crossroads in its modern history. Assad’s fall had created a rare opportunity for political reconstruction and the establishment of an inclusive state — but that hope is now fading under the weight of Israel’s devastating strikes and HTS’s governance failures. Israel’s bombardment, which has crippled Syria’s defensive and economic capacity and led to what many call the “Hiroshima of Tartus,” has placed the transition in grave danger.

Simultaneously, HTS, with its extremist past and inability to provide security or earn public trust, has failed to fill the power vacuum in a way that leads to stability and unity. These two destructive forces, acting together, have crushed Syria’s hopes for peace and reconstruction. To salvage this fragile process, the international community must increase pressure on Israel to cease its attacks and support a comprehensive political dialogue within Syria. Otherwise, Syria may remain trapped in a spiral of chaos and instability for years to come — and the dream of a united and inclusive state may become a never-ending nightmare.

© Eurasia Review