A week ago, Oman’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr al-Busaidi penned an OpEd for The Economist asking “America’s friends” to help “extricate it from an unlawful war.” Al-Busaidi’s note was received more so as an appeasement than a rallying call to face an aggressor. While al-Busaidi referred to Iran’s aggression against Gulf neighbors as “retaliation”, the Foreign Minister never mentioned violations of sovereignty by an unprovoked aggressor. Iran has not only targeted US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, it has also indiscriminately targeted civilians at hotels and airports across Gulf states, a point neglected by al-Busaidi. 

The initial response to the OpEd among some observers was to point at the Sultanate of Oman’s attempt to rescue its position as a neutral mediator. Al-Busaidi does begin his note by expressing his “shock” at start of the US-Israel strikes on February 28th, “just a few hours after the latest and most substantive talks” held in Washington, DC. Al-Busaidi correctly refers to US-Israel strikes on Iran as “unlawful”, but only labels Iran’s unprovoked bombardment on Gulf neighbors as “inevitable, if deeply regrettable,” a tone not missed by Oman’s Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners who expected far more solidarity. Every statement from Oman’s neighbors has outright condemned Iran’s unprovoked aggression and demanded immediate halt to strikes targeting civilian facilities and reparations from Iran. On March 28th, Iran once again targeted Kuwait’s airport and Dubai city, adding further evidence supporting demands that GCC states must be part of any peace negotiations with Iran, that must include degrading the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities. 

Further aggravating response by neighbors, al-Busaidi called Iran’s aggression “the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership.” This was not the language expected from GCC partners bearing the brunt of Iran’s “retaliation,” to the point where media outlets highlighted “Oman has not attributed blame for the drone attacks on its ports, although they are widely believed to be Iranian.” It remains to be seen if the Sultanate finally responds accordingly following the March 28 drone strike at Salalah port. 

Observers estimate that “more than 4,000 Iranian projectiles [have been] launched against the [GCC] states” since start of the war. By some accounts, “over 500 Iranian missiles and 1,500 UAVs in the first six days of the war” by Gulf states, and while major damage has been averted, the impact of Iran’s aggression has  deeply affected “global energy, industrial and financial markets” across the world. Al-Busaidi also fails to communicate the severity of the long-term impact on GCC economies when he merely comments that “[p]lans to become a global hub for data centres may need to be revised,” as the “economic model in which global sport, tourism, aviation and technology were to play an important role” for GCC states and is now endangered. 

Al-Busaidi’s note calling for Gulf states, which he only refers to as neighbors, not partners or allies, outright fell short of expectations. Both, as result of his own personal high profile as a diplomat but also at the failure to express solidarity with Gulf states and further fueling the image that the Sultanate’s dependence on Iran compromises its position on the Arabian Peninsula. Al-Busaidi called for a framework for shared national interests and peaceful co-existence across the Persian Gulf, but fails to mention even in passing efforts by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to reach a peace agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran. In appeasing Iran’s aggression, Busaidi failed to mention the March 10, 2023 agreement reached in Beijing. By many estimates prior to start of hostilities las month, observers saw “good reason to believe that Abu Dhabi and Tehran [would] successfully find ways to manage friction between them.” None of this was noted by al-Busaidi. 

Escalation seems inevitable in coming days, and it remains to be seen how Oman reacts to increasing strikes on Gulf neighbors by Iran. On March 28, Iran launched a series of strikes on Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with a number of casualties among US military personnel at Prince Sultan Air Base, while the UAE reported a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones as Iran claimed targeting Ukrainian defence site. Al-Busaidi might have attempted to rescue his government’s role as peacemakers, but may have permanently damaged the Sultanate’s relations with its immediate neighbors, especially as Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced they have joined the war on Iran’s side and claimed missile and drones launches on Israel and the UAE. Oman hosts Houthi figures and has played an instrumental role in legitimizing their control over north Yemen, as well as vital to the détente between Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Any escalation by Houthis targeting Gulf state would undoubtedly further undermine Oman’s credibility and relations with its neighbors. 

© Eurasia Review