*Originally published in 2021. Get E-International Relations delivered to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber, or make a donation, to support our work.

In international relations, leaders often resort to diversionary military action to dodge domestic criticisms and boost approval. For leaders of weak states, such an approach could be counter-productive. Careless diversionary wars could very likely produce the exact opposite result, incurring the wrath of another country, threatening the weak state’s security, and ultimately losing electoral support at home. The choice of strategies is critical in the US-China-Taiwan relationship. With China’s rapid enhancement in its military capacities, Taiwan also needs to keep upgrading its military capacity to maintain the uneasy status quo. As a democratic regime, leaders of Taiwan need public approval to increase military spending. Taiwanese leaders could identify China as the main enemy to win support, but such a diversionary framing may further infuriate China and then backfire at home. Hence, we investigate how the incumbent President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, manages this dilemma by examining how she communicates national security issues to the public and whether her foreign policy rhetoric shifts in response to the presidential elections in both Taiwan (January) and the US (November) in 2020.

To summarize, we provide evidence showing that (1) President Tsai steadily emphasizes the importance of national defense since 2019, and the strength did not change because of the presidential elections in both Taiwan and the US; (2) Tsai often mentioned cross-Strait relations before Taiwan’s Presidential Election in January 2020, but barely did so after the reelection; and (3) Taiwanese public has responded to Tsai’s rhetoric more favorably after she dropped China from her national security posts since the reelection.

We analyzed all of Tsai’s Facebook posts from Jan. 2019 – Jan 2021, resulting in 1495 posts, averaging about 2 posts per day. We focus on Facebook because, according to a 2019 telephone survey with Internet users by Taiwan Network Information Center, 99% of Taiwanese people use Facebook. President Tsai’s page has more........

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