Photo by Chris Lawton

On Thursday 26 February 2026, the Gorton and Denton by-election could introduce to UK politics a register of despair not heard in Manchester since Joy Division first turned urban dislocation into sound. “This is the crisis I knew had to come,” sang the late great Ian Curtis, and the line fits too well to ignore.

As national coverage now routinely notes, the contest has already escaped from its local cage and become a kind of national proxy war. To be fair to those reports, this is a weakened version of Starmer’s Labour, pitted against Reform and the Greens, sharpened by Labour’s decision to block Andy Burnham, and Reform’s decision to nominate immigration-obsessed Matt Goodwin.

Goodwin is himself freshly endorsed by far-right agitator and Musk idol Tommy Robinson, though Reform has publicly disavowed Robinson. The reason such divisive figures matter is simple: this is the sort of seat Reform must win to prove it is more than a vehicle for harvesting right-wing Tory disaffection and the dangerous hostility it fosters between people.

An urban, historically Labour constituency is the test. Labour dominates local government representation across the seat. “No love lost here,” Curtis also sang.

Moreover, this by-election unfolds against a furious backdrop of Tory defections to Reform. I’m not sure what the collective noun should be, but a wave of defections might work.

To make sense, it probably helps to sort by type: the ambitious, the ideological, the opportunistic, and—most dangerously—the toxic. “They walked in line, they walked in line,” until suddenly they didn’t.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said in the past: “My message to you is clear, plain, and simple. Never trust a Tory…” Of his........

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