Contending, rebuilding or stuck in limbo: What AFL trade period says about your team’s flag hopes

October 15, 2026 — 12:00am

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This year’s AFL trade period did not have as many blockbuster moves or as many cliffhanger deals to complete in the final, but there was still plenty enough to maintain our interest.

Among the players to switch teams were the league’s games record-holder, a dual Brownlow medallist, a seven-time club champion, one of the competition’s best on-ballers, an All-Australian defender, a No.1 draft pick, and a Coleman medallist.

We graded every club’s performance through the free agency and trade period to find the best- and worst-performed in this year’s player movement window.

In: Zach Merrett (Ess/trade), Ben King (GC/free agency), Josh Goater (NM/trade), pick 107, R2 2027 (GC), R1 2028 (GC), R2 2028 (GC)Out: Aidan Schubert and Sam Butler (GC/trade), Finn Maginness (WB/trade), Bodie Ryan (Mel/trade), picks 17 and 27, R1 2028 (Haw), R2 2028 (Haw)Draft picks: 29, 37, 71, 94, 107, 112Trade rating: 10/10

Are the Hawks closer to a flag after this trade period? You betcha. Adding King and Merrett to a team already overflowing with talent was a home run for the brown and gold, and Goater was worth the punt in a cheap-as-chips trade. Hawthorn rated Schubert highly, but he was a mile down the key forward pecking order, while Butler and Maginness were also surplus to demands and Ryan had been delisted. Bringing in readymade talent is worth far more than picks to the Hawks, given where they are – and even then, they didn’t give much up – so this was a ragingly successful fortnight.

In: Jordon Butts (Ade/free agency), Zak Butters (PA/free agency), Finn Maginness (Haw/trade), Hudson O’Keeffe (Carl/trade), picks 42, 53, 83, 89, R2 2027 (PA), R3 2027 (Mel), R4 2027 (PA), R2 2028 (PA), R3 2028 (PA), R3 2028 (GC), R4 2028 (Melb)Out: Picks 14 and 33, R3 2027 (GC), R1 2028 (WB)Draft picks: 42, 53, 55, 83, 89, 91, 109Trade rating: 9.5/10

The Bulldogs could hardly be happier. They beat Geelong and others to secure Butters’ prized signature in a major coup, as well as adding fellow free agent Butts to shore up their defence and added O’Keeffe for ruck depth. They played ball in a five-club mega deal that was largely designed to appease Port Adelaide for losing Butters and avoid them matching their restricted free agency offer. Butters and Marcus Bontempelli instantly become arguably the best duo in the AFL, and they will spearhead the Dogs’ premiership assault. They also took a cheap flyer on ex-Hawk Maginness.

In: Toby Greene (GWS/free agency), Jordan Ridley (Ess/trade), Rowan Marshall (StK/trade), Pick 62, R3 2028 (StK), R4 2028 (Ess)Out: Jack Bowes (Ess/trade), Pick 16, R1 2027, R2 2028Draft picks: 36, 57, 62, 75, 93, 111Trade grade: 8.5/10

The Cats have gone all-in to win a flag while they can still get decent footy from Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron. They have strengthened every third of the field. Veteran match-winner Greene, who came for nothing, provides a star-studded forward line with even more firepower and can also add to their secondary midfield rotations. If they can get the best out of the injury-plagued Ridley, who turns 28 next week, they have a topline defender to bolster their intercept game. In Marshall, the Cats land a ruckman who can match the best rucks around the ground. The latter pair, though, have come at the cost of two firsts and a second, leaving the Cats without a pick until 36 in this year’s draft. They also ran out of picks to seriously get into the race for Nick Blakey – but with three high-class players to come into their best 23, the Cats should start next season one of the flag favourites.

In: Zane Duursma (NM/trade), Will McLachlan (BL/trade), Bodie Ryan (Haw/trade), Picks 4, 14, 48, 52, R2 2027 (BL), R2 2027 (WC), R4 2027 (WC), R2 2028 (WC)Out: Trent Rivers and Jack Viney (WC/trade), picks 12, 49, 87, 107, R1 2027 (Mel), R2 2027 (Mel), R3 2027 (Mel), R2 2028 (Mel), R4 2028 (Mel)Draft picks: 4, 14, 48, 52Trade rating: 8.5/10

No club is better at accumulating draft picks and rising in the order than the Demons. Duursma was a bust at North Melbourne as the No.4 selection three years ago, but Melbourne present him with a second chance without the same risk (effectively pick 33). They also brought in Lions forward Will McLachlan for pick 45, which came in the deal that sent Viney and Rivers to West Coast.........

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