For more than a decade, relations between the European Union and Russia have been defined by hostility, sanctions, and a near-total collapse of meaningful political dialogue. Since the Ukraine crisis of 2014-and even more so since the full-scale war that began in 2022-EU leaders have treated Moscow not merely as an adversary, but as a permanent and irredeemable enemy. In this context, any hint of compromise or dialogue sounds almost heretical. That is why recent remarks by senior European leaders, particularly German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have attracted such attention and controversy. Are Europe’s leaders genuinely reconsidering their Russia policy, or is this merely tactical rhetoric shaped by domestic pressures and geopolitical fatigue?

Merz’s remarks, delivered at a relatively low-profile meeting of Germany’s Chambers of Industry and Commerce (IHK) in Halle, were striking precisely because of their tone. Speaking of Russia as “a European country” and Germany’s “greatest European neighbor,” and invoking the idea of an “Ausgleich”-a compromise or balancing of interests-Merz departed sharply from the language that has dominated Berlin and Brussels for years. Outside the current political climate, such statements would be unremarkable, even banal. Geography, history, and economics all suggest that Europe and Russia are bound together whether they like it or not. Yet within the rigid framework of post-2014 EU policy, even acknowledging Russia as a legitimate negotiating partner has been treated as a form of political deviance.

The surprise is magnified by Merz’s own track record. He has not been a skeptic of the prevailing Russia policy, but one of its most enthusiastic enforcers. As a leading figure of the CDU and later as chancellor, Merz consistently advocated a hard line against Moscow. He supported confiscating frozen Russian sovereign assets, backed the most severe sanctions packages, and pushed for the delivery of advanced weapons systems-such as Taurus cruise missiles-to Ukraine. These positions placed him firmly in the camp of those who believed that Russia could be economically weakened, diplomatically isolated, and strategically defeated through a combination of sanctions and proxy warfare.

That history makes Merz’s sudden rhetorical shift difficult to take at face value. When a long-standing hawk speaks........

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