COLUMNIST: The 10 things that Trump didn’t see coming in Iran
Before President Donald Trump attacked Iran, the United States conducted an array of highly publicized military preparations, seemingly to signal what could be coming.
Major naval units, including two aircraft carrier strike groups and a dozen destroyers, were sent to the Middle East. So were scores of Air Force fighter aircraft, as Trump left little doubt about his intentions.
But while the military buildup was intensively planned, Trump and his advisers seemingly overlooked much of the likely economic and political fallout. Ever since, they have scrambled to catch up. Here are 10 things Trump failed to foresee:
1. The need to sell the attacks to the American people and the world.
Initial arguments by Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth focused heavily on Iran's horrific history of terrorist attacks, convincingly making a case why Iran deserved to be attacked but not why this was the right time.
Subsequent statements further muddled the timing. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Israel was planning an attack on Iran "that would precipitate an attack against American forces" so the United States decided to "pre-emptively" attack. But Trump said, "I think they were going to attack first," though he didn't provide any evidence.
Without any clear explanation, U.S. public reaction split sharply, largely reflecting overall public attitudes toward Trump.
2. Iran's ability to respond did not depend on who was in charge. The administration seemed surprised that its initial success in assassinating Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials did not damage Iran's ability to respond.
3. The impact on Americans in the region. The administration failed to realize the war would strand thousands of American diplomats, contractors, and their families.
4. Iran's counter-attacks. Trump said he was "very surprised" when Iran, in retaliation, attacked eight nearby countries, including such U.S. allies as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He told CNN's Jake Tapper it was "the biggest surprise I had of this whole thing."
5. Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz. CNN, quoting multiple unnamed sources, said the Pentagon and the National Security Council underestimated Iran's willingness to respond to U.S. attacks by closing the strait.
6. The potential impact on world oil supplies and the global economy. Trump said he saw no need to make additional supplies available from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that the U.S. maintains to help in such emergencies. Trump predicted Monday that prices would go down "very, very rapidly," but Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there were "no guarantees."
7. A need for allied help. But after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, Trump called on China and U.S. allies in Europe to join a military effort to keep the waterway open.
8. The broader impact. The administration seemed unaware that attacking Iran would affect U.S. policies elsewhere. After Iran succeeded in slowing global oil supplies, Trump eased limits on shipments from Russia that had been designed to provide pressure to end the war in Ukraine.
9. What constitutes success. Trump has given no clear explanation of his ultimate goal, beyond preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons.
10. The domestic fallout.
