With Donald Trump smacking down his Republican rivals in Iowa, it’s worth asking why a disgusting human being and incompetent former president, facing multiple indictments is faring so well in the Republican Party.
After the 2016 elections, I wrote a book chapter exploring his initial electoral appeal, which I argued arose from uniting three strands of conservatism—aversion to government, aversion to change and aversion to difference—along with the billionaire bounce, the view that a successful businessperson (which he was less of than he claimed) could fix the economy.
Since then, lots has happened and most of it should have hurt the former president, even among Republicans. But it hasn’t.
Why not?
In my view, three factors taken together account for much of his continuing appeal—partisanship, the persistence of preexisting beliefs and (faux) authenticity.
Partisanship is a powerful drug, a core identity that organizes our thoughts and feelings in the political realm.
Trump was widely disliked by Republicans until it became clear he was a real contender for his party’s nomination.
In May 2015, before he formally announced his candidacy, an ABC/Washington Post poll revealed just 16 percent of Republicans held favorable views of their eventual nominee, while 65 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
As he became a leading candidate, however, Republicans did a 180. Favorables among Republicans in the ABC/Washington Post poll leapt from 16 percent to 57 percent, while unfavorables tumbled from 65 percent to 40 percent.
Republicans had no use for Trump when he was a burlesque showman and wannabe politician. But once he was their potential standard-bearer, GOPers began their love affair with the orange haired narcissist.
By the time Republican Party Chair Reince Priebus anointed him the GOP’s presumptive nominee, Trump was at 65 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable.
In other words, favorable views of Trump increased among Republicans as they learned he might represent their prime political identity.
When he became president, Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans jumped again to 83 percent favorable, 12 percent unfavorable.
In February of 2021, after losing the White House and attempting to foment insurrection, the former president’s average favorability rating among Republicans stood at a similar 81 percent to 17 percent.
And today, following criminal indictments, losing civil cases, and with fellow Republicans campaigning against him, he stands at a nearly indistinguishable 78 percent to 19 percent among his co-partisans.
Which brings us to the second factor I highlighted— the persistence of preexisting beliefs. People don’t change their minds easily, especially about matters wrapped up with their identities.
As cognitive scientist Hugo Mercier concluded upon reviewing a wide range of evidence, “Any message that clashes with our prior beliefs…is overwhelmingly likely to fall on deaf ears.”
Witness Republican reactions to Richard Nixon.
After a summer of Senate Watergate hearings, featuring blockbuster testimony from former White House Counsel John Dean and the loss of the tapes case in the Supreme Court, a delegation of GOP congressional leaders led by arch-conservative Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) traveled down Pennsylvania Avenue to inform Nixon they would impeach and convict him if he remained in office.
Even as Goldwater and company were plotting their visit to the president, only 31 percent of Republican voters said Nixon should be impeached, while 59 percent believed he should not. Changing the minds of GOP voters about Nixon was difficult indeed.
Support for Donald Trump was forged by partisanship and held in place by a combination of that partisanship and people’s reluctance to change their minds.
In weathering the incredible storms he’s faced, Trump also benefited from the false sense of authenticity he derived from appearing to suffer for his beliefs.
Trump was willing to say things his supporters believed, but other politicians eschewed. By willingly suffering the “establishment’s” opprobrium, as well as its investigations and indictments, Trump came to be seen as the authentic champion of those who felt unrepresented.
People judged as morally authentic appear driven by intrinsic motivations, not extrinsic rewards. Trump’s willingness to suffer so much appeared to demonstrate that he was driven by true beliefs and real commitments to his constituents’ viewpoints, not by rewards he might reap.
In the psycho-logic of his supporters, his indictments and the other attacks on him were a badge of courage, a sign of his willingness to sacrifice for their shared values.
Now Donald Trump is the Republican Party.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, a member of the Association’s Hall of Fame, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.
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