Four years ago, the Republican Party seemed to hit the jackpot. It fielded more than 80 Black congressional candidates for the 2022 midterm elections — its most ever — which produced the largest class of Black Republicans in Congress since Reconstruction: five. After this year’s midterms, that number will probably be down to one.

The four Black Republicans in the House — Reps. Byron Donalds (Florida), John James (Michigan), Wesley Hunt (Texas) and Burgess Owens (Utah) — chose not to seek reelection. Donalds and James are vying to be their state’s governor. Hunt ran for the Senate but failed to secure the party’s nomination, and Owens opted to retire after being redistricted out of his seat. Sen. Tim Scott (South Carolina), who briefly ran for president, is the longest-serving Black Republican in congressional history at 15 years and will be the only one remaining come January.

The disappearing act in the House is the latest setback in a sudden losing streak. Since President Donald Trump’s historic showing among Black voters in the 2024 election, his job approval rating with them has been cut by more than half. Polling this month shows that Republicans receive just 6 percent of the bloc’s vote in a generic ballot. The party’s gamble to diversify its coalition paid off, but Trump and MAGA have since squandered the gains. And while losing voters who are unhappy about broken promises and leaders acting in bad faith is consequential, losing members of Congress is more telling.

For Black House Republicans in particular, allegiance to MAGA can help win elections, but it’s insufficient to keep them satisfied with their seat. Modern congressional Black Republicans recognize that their careers require political opportunism in a party that demands, but doesn’t always reward, uncritical loyalty.

Their departures come amid a mass exodus from Congress, especially among House Republicans representing districts that Trump safely won. This typically occurs when members suspect they’ll lose the majority or when there’s legislative gridlock, both of which characterize the current House. Many exiting members run for higher office or retire once their districts are redrawn. Congressional Black Republicans are no exception, but their calculus is necessarily different. Since the Voting Rights Act of 1965, just 10 Black Republicans have served in the House — only one served more than three terms. Time runs out on them quickly, so they must act while they can.

That means they must prioritize moving up before the party or voters move them out. For all of Trump’s gains in 2024, his two administrations have been the least racially diverse in the last three decades. Moreover, no congressional Black Republican has ever gone on to hold a position in a presidential administration, making the executive branch effectively closed to them. And only one has gone from the House to the Senate — in 2013, when Scott was appointed to his current seat following the incumbent’s retirement. Not only has MAGA not created new opportunities for the current class in Congress, but there’d be little opportunity for them in the federal government under any administration.

The lack of prospects is especially frustrating. Political historians note that Black Republicans tend to prioritize either ambition or principle when seeking office. For the ambitious, their underrepresentation in the party can fast-track their path to elected office. For the principled, the opportunity to champion traditional conservative values is the primary appeal. And political scientists have found that polarizing partisan movements can improve the chances of minority candidates in Republican primaries — demonstrating commitment to the movement helps overcome voters’ racial resentments. This phenomenon helps explain the influx during the tea party wave more than a decade ago and MAGA today.

This reality attracts people who are least likely to be satisfied serving as partisan foot soldiers or being told to wait their turn, such as Scott, who decided to run as a Republican after being instructed by the local Democratic Party office to “get in line” for a shot at elected office. It also describes James, who ran for the Senate twice before winning his House seat in a competitive district. Reporting suggests Trump wants him to stay put in Congress and not run for governor, a request that’s fallen on deaf ears as James is in a virtual tie for the lead in the state’s primary. And it’s seen in Hunt’s defiance of Republican leadership’s attempts to pressure him to drop out of the Senate race.

These Republicans understood the opportunity that MAGA afforded when seeking office but recognized they’ve probably hit the ceiling in a movement losing steam. Even as they made history, they’d rather leave on their own terms than languish in the House of a dysfunctional Congress. Once considered evidence of the nation’s changing politics, the exit of Black Republicans along with decreased support from Black voters and low approval ratings suggests running was more a calculated gamble than a product of partisan realignment. In the end, Republicans seemed to bet on Black four years ago and will soon have nothing to show for it.

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