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Is Kenya poised for an economic takeoff? Or is the prospect more hype than reality?
It’s a question I wrestled with during a recent, too-brief trip to the country where I lived in the 1990s.
President William Ruto, Kenya’s self-styled “hustler in chief,” tells anyone who will listen that his East African country of about 55 million people is “open for business.” He has plenty of backers, including many Western economists, bankers and the top U.S. diplomat in Nairobi, who agree that Kenya — East Africa’s largest economy and by far its most stable democracy — might finally be ready for its breakout moment after decades of stagnation, autocratic repression and ethnic strife.
The boosters point to the country’s impressive 5.5 percent growth rate last year, expected to top 6.3 percent for 2024. Its young population — the median age is just 20 — is one of the continent’s best educated. The workforce is growing while the overall population declines, leading to what economists call a “demographic dividend,” the sweet spot in which more working-age people have fewer mouths to feed.
Kenyans have also embraced technology. The country has high digital penetration, is awash in start-ups, and was one of the world’s earliest adapters to cellphone banking; some........