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The foreign-policy community in Washington clearly tilts toward the DPP. The pro-American party has held the presidency for the past eight years as both the Trump and Biden administrations forged closer ties with Taipei. The DPP’s candidate, Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is the current vice president. His running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, has been popular in Washington since 2020 as Taiwan’s special envoy. The DPP emphasizes democracy and freedom in a way that resonates in the United States.
So while a DPP victory would be hailed as an ideological rebuke of Beijing, I wonder whether a KMT victory this time around wouldn’t be a strategic reprieve for Washington. With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. The temporary reduction in cross-strait tensions that would accompany a KMT victory could give Washington a window — if politicians are willing to seize it — to put the U.S. military deterrent on a firmer footing.
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Zoom out from the current election: Maintaining Taiwan’s sovereignty is one of the few fixed priorities in the United States’ erratic foreign policy. Letting the strategic island fall to Beijing would devastate Washington’s alliance structure and military position in Asia. The Defense Department says China is the United States’ most formidable rival, and Taiwan — just 100 miles from China’s coast with a population of about 24 million — is the U.S. ally China most consistently threatens.
Follow this authorJason Willick's opinionsFollowThe United States hasn’t kept up with the challenge. Adm. John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said in 2022 that China is conducting “the largest military buildup in history since World War II.” Australian and British officials agree. Meantime, the Pentagon budget is roughly flat as a share of U.S. gross domestic product, and far below Cold War levels. The military-industrial base is under pressure from supplying Ukraine in its war with Russia even as the Biden administration tries to supply Israel’s war with Hamas and deter a war with Iran.
The shortage of missiles is especially dire, as the Wall Street Journal reports, noting a simulation that found “America would run out of all-important long-range anti-ship missiles within the first week” of a war over Taiwan. The United States has allowed its ability to ensure Taiwan’s political independence — which it has guaranteed, more or less, since Japan lost control of the island in 1945 — to fall into doubt.
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Amid a deteriorating world situation, a stronger showing by the........