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Justin Trudeau’s snap election may not be the victory he expects

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19.08.2021

Most analysts believe, based on early polls, that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party will gain seats, and perhaps get a majority, in the Sept. 20 snap election. Tuesday’s surprise outcome in Nova Scotia’s provincial election, however, suggests it might not be so easy.

The are strong similarities between Trudeau’s current position and that of Nova Scotia’s incumbent Liberal government at the outset of its campaign. Like Trudeau, the Liberals were running for their third term. Both started their campaigns with strong polling leads over their two main opponents, the Conservative Party — known as Progressive Conservatives in Nova Scotia — and the New Democrats. In both cases, polling showed the Conservative vote was down from the prior election while the Liberal vote was up. Both Trudeau and Nova Scotia’s Liberals had weathered the pandemic relatively well and expected the voters’ gratitude as a result.

But Nova Scotia’s Liberals lost. On election day, the Progressive Conservatives won the popular vote by about two points and gained 13 seats — a huge number in a 55-seat legislature. The PCs now have a solid majority and will govern the province for the next four years.

Analysts........

© Washington Post


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