Is Trump’s 16-week abortion ban reasonable?

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But all things considered, Trump’s stance is not nearly as extreme as what we’ve seen from many others in his party. So I asked Post Opinions columnists Megan McArdle and Ruth Marcus: Is Trump softening on abortion?

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Alexi McCammond: Hello there! Thank you both for doing this on a holiday. I feel like Trump has been pretty smart about abortion politics so far. Is his position on this issue kinda … reasonable?

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Ruth Marcus: No. No. No. It sounds reasonable, but don’t be bamboozled by it. Here’s why: First, a 16-week national ban does not, as I understand it from the Times’ reporting, prevent states from having more draconian restrictions. It would only prevent liberal states that want to be more protective of abortion rights, and that’s about 30 states at the moment, from doing so. So the notion that this decision should be left to the states — which Trump once endorsed — would be overtaken by the rule that states get to be as restrictive as they want but not as permissive as they want.

Alexi: So that means under a President Trump there’d be no future for these abortion ballot initiatives we’ve seen across the country that have enshrined reproductive rights in those states’ constitutions.

Ruth: Second, even if this were not the case, 16 weeks sounds more reasonable than it is in reality. There would be no exceptions except for rape, incest and the life of the mother. We have seen with terrible, tragic cases in Texas and elsewhere what happens to women in dire but perhaps not imminently life-threatening situations, how illusory these supposed “exceptions” are. In addition, there would be no allowance made for the similarly terrible situations in which the fetus is discovered to have a life-threatening or drastically life-limiting condition. These tend to be diagnosed after 16 weeks, and a majority of women terminate pregnancies in such situations. They would no longer be permitted to make that choice. Bottom line: This is a ruse. Don’t fall for it.

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Alexi: Megan, what do you think?

Megan McArdle: I think there are a lot of definitions of “reasonable.” On principle, and as a matter of practicality, I think the issue should be left to the states, but I don’t think it’s “unreasonable” to disagree.

In terms of the substance, I think 16 weeks is a reasonable compromise between the extremism of the activists who drive both party platforms. It’s broadly in line with how Western Europe handles the issue. It’s also broadly in line with how the American public polls on this: Americans support relatively unfettered access in the first trimester but are quite uncomfortable with allowing women to decide to abort a viable pregnancy in the second and third trimester.

Ruth: Megan, hiya, hope you’re well. With all due respect, I believe you’re wrong about Europe, for multiple reasons. In Europe, there is far easier access to birth control and abortion, with health-care coverage, early in pregnancy. In addition, in the European countries, there are significant exceptions for maternal and fetal health, exceptions that Trump is not including. So — and I wrote about this some time ago when Sen. Lindsey Graham came out with his equally bogus 15-week proposal — the European comparison is not apt.

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Alexi: I mean, honestly, even thinking about Trump having any say over women’s reproductive rights makes me feel bad. And that’s a sign that this will only help Biden and Democrats amplify the issue of abortion and protecting reproductive rights even more (though Trump himself hasn’t said this publicly yet).

Megan: I would hesitate to call the evolving Democratic position that a fetus exists in a kind of Schrödinger’s superposition, becoming a person only as the mother wills it, more reasonable than a 16-week ban. Nor, of course, do I think the Republican laws that are making it hard for doctors to treat women with miscarriages can be called “reasonable” in any sense of the word.

Ruth: Megan, I do not agree that is the evolving Democratic position. But we are discussing whether the Trump proposal, to the extent we understand it, is reasonable.

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I do agree with Megan that 16 weeks is in line with how the American public polls. If there were a real........

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