Shortly after Republican candidate Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn in an off-year special House election in Tennessee, media in Washington, D.C., immediately began the time-honored tradition of hyperanalyzing the outcome to predict the fortunes of political parties. 

These elections, though, rarely tell us anything useful. In 2023, Democrats won off-year races in Virginia, an abortion referendum in the red state of Ohio, and the governorship in the red state of Kentucky. In 2024, Democrats lost both the presidency and both chambers of Congress.

Most of the number crunching this time focused on the spread of Van Epps’s victory. In 2024, Trump won the district by a commanding 22 points. Van Epps won it with a slender nine. The district has been in GOP hands since 1983, and it was the lowest percentage total for a Republican win since that year. 

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