It’s already a two-person race for the 2028 Democratic nomination |
Believe it or not, the race for the Democratic nomination has already narrowed to two main players and a gaggle of extras. The clutch of polling thus far is of uneven quality, to say the least, but former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) are the clear frontrunners with everyone else auditioning for Veep.
The fact is, the Democratic nomination process has become fairly predictable and stable. You have to go back to 1992 to find a race where multiple candidates were in the mix before and through the early primaries. The last true dark horse winner was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
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Even in “open” contests (where a sitting president or vice president was not running), the race was down to two heavyweights very early — or even one heavyweight. Biden v. Sanders (Yes, Joe Biden was the clear favorite in 2020), Clinton v. Sanders, Obama v. Clinton, Gore v. Bradley, and, inexplicably, John Kerry v. nobody.
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The early polling is strange, to say the least, but generally shows what one might expect: Harris, with high name ID and tens of millions of Democrats having twice voted for her, in a leading position. The other candidate with high name ID and years of media........