An old argument has returned to debates over the war in Ukraine: that Russia might not have invaded had Ukraine pledged to stay out of NATO. Amanda Sloat, a senior official on President Joe Biden’s National Security Council, suggested this week that Ukrainian neutrality could have spared lives.

She’s wrong. Russia would have invaded Ukraine regardless of its desire to join NATO.

Ukraine’s recent history supports that point. After NATO’s 2008 Bucharest summit, European allies blocked a clear path to Ukrainian and Georgian........

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