There are growing fears that the war in Gaza is, to borrow US President Joe Biden’s term, metastasising into a regional conflict. In the past 10 days, a senior leader of Hamas and a senior leader of Hezbollah have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli airstrikes, while a US airstrike killed a senior commander of the Shi’a Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq. And a letter signed by a dozen nations, including Australia and New Zealand, warned the Yemeni Houthi movement to end their attacks on shipping and to release detained vessels or face the consequences.
In a worst-case scenario, a regional conflict could result in Israeli forces invading southern Lebanon, the 2500 US forces remaining in Iraq being kicked out and those in Syria facing increasing attack, and conflict in Yemen turning the Red Sea into a shipping no-go zone. Mercifully, the most dangerous outcome is also the least likely because it is not in the interests of Iran, the central player in these conflicts through its promotion of and support for the so-called “axis of resistance”.
Iran and Lebanon are among the countries involved in the Middle East conflict between Israel and Hamas.Credit: Istock
Iran’s overriding concern is regime stability, followed by establishing regional influence commensurate with its desire to spread the Islamic revolution and its view of itself as the regional first among equals.
One way in which Iran has sought to achieve this is by developing or assisting allies and proxies throughout the region. But having now essentially lost Hamas as an operationally effective partner, Iran will not be keen to have other strategic........