Collingwood are ahead of Carlton in the tender for the services of Dan Houston, in large part because the Magpies are willing to pay a heftier price for the All-Australian defender.

If all goes according to plan, they will land Houston for their future first-round pick, plus the pick 23 they gain from the Suns for John Noble and perhaps smoking Joe Richards (who wants to join Port Adelaide) thrown in as a pair of steak knives.

Pies coach Craig McRae put his club’s short-term mindset on the record recently.Credit: Getty Images

But to be “in the box seat” for Houston also means boxing yourself in to a deal that carries significant risks for the Magpies, whose apparent post-season strategy, if there is one, is to double down on mature players at the expense of draft picks.

Craig McRae put this short-term mindset on record less than a fortnight ago. “I don’t want picks, I want players,” he said on his weekly segment on SEN. It was a surprising comment from a coach renowned for his development coaching skills.

That said, if you’ve listened to Collingwood this year, it has been plain that there is a prevailing view that the draft’s gravitational pull can be circumvented and they can remain in premiership contention by a mix of trading, free agency and with less reliance on the draft. The impression given is that the draft will not be their one wood.

They seem to believe they can emulate Geelong, who have hung around the top for longer than the system typically tolerates.

The less optimistic scenario would be to follow........

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