Trump looks ready to bomb Iran again. Why? |
A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-U.S. mural on a wall of the former U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, Iran, on January 20, 2026, following recent unrest in Iran. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
It appears increasingly likely that in the coming days, the United States will once again launch airstrikes against Iran.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that a “massive Armada is heading to Iran,” referring to the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several other naval ships that have recently taken positions in the region, along with rapid build-ups in aircraft and air defense systems. Should he order an attack, Trump warned the damage would be “far worse” than “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the bombing operation targeting Iran’s nuclear sites carried out by the US last June.
It’s a shockingly quick pivot from just weeks earlier, when Trump appeared to back down from his “locked and loaded” threat to intervene over the state’s brutal crackdown on protesters. Despite reports of horrific casualties, the president indicated that he was satisfied that the killing of protesters had stopped and that Iran had halted hundreds of planned executions. It’s too late for an intervention to rescue the protesters — the movement has been effectively crushed for now, with estimates of the number killed ranging from 3,000 to 6,000, or potentially much higher.
But the stated motives for the new military standoff are different this time. Trump is publicly calling for Iran to negotiate a deal for “no nuclear weapons,” escalating a longstanding demand at a time when the regime looks especially weak. The New York Times has reported that US officials have given the Iranians three demands: a permanent end to all uranium enrichment and the destruction of its current stockpiles, limits on its ballistic missile program, and an end to support for proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
This is not unlike the build-up in Venezuela before the raid that captured Nicolás Maduro, during which the administration seemed to alternate between primary motivations — “narcoterrorism,” recovering US oil assets — before taking action.
“This seems to be a military intervention in search of an objective,” said Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group.
To the extent the protesters fit into the equation now, it may be an additional source of tactical advantage. According to Reuters, Trump is also weighing targets for strikes that could help foment regime change by giving Iran’s protesters “the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings,” betting that a show of force might renew the now-suppressed opposition.
Trump was reportedly urged earlier this month to refrain from attacks by US allies in the Gulf and Israel, but the Venezuela........