Trump is waffling on Iran strikes. Here are four possible reasons why. |
Is help really “on its way” for Iran’s protesters?
That’s what President Donald Trump promised in a Truth Social post earlier this week, adding that “Iranians Patriots” should “KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!”
Trump first threatened that the US was “locked and loaded” to launch strikes on Iran if it continued killing protesters on January 2, and has followed up with several similar messages. Since then, the protests have spread throughout the country, and the regime’s crackdown has become ever more brutal. Though a nationwide internet blackout has made it difficult to get an accurate picture of what’s happening on the ground in Iran, human rights groups believe between 12,000 and 20,000 people may have been killed. At the very least, we can say that the regime defied Trump’s warning to stop killing protesters.
Just a few days ago, Trump appeared to be leaning toward military strikes on Iranian regime targets, the first since the US bombed Iranian nuclear targets last June. But Trump appeared more equivocal on Wednesday, saying that “important sources” had told him that the killing in Iran had ended and that the United States would “watch and see” if it resumed. The governments of Israel and several Arab countries have reportedly urged Trump to refrain from strikes for now, fearing regional retaliation.
The violence may be subsiding, though that may be less because the regime is worried about US intervention than because the protest movement itself is starting to subside amid the unprecedentedly violent crackdown and communications blackout. Still, the situation is fluid —the movement and the backlash could resume, and influential hawks in the administration and on Capitol Hill are still calling for Trump to take stronger action.
While Trump has approached this crisis in his own unique way, the basic dilemma of whether the US should use military force to stop mass killing overseas is........