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Is this the beginning of the end of the war in Iran?

Trump signaled that he’s ready to wrap up the conflict, but that may not be up to him.

The Iran war of 2026 will continue, but it appears to be entering its final phase. Or at least, that’s what President Donald Trump hopes.

Claiming that the “hard part is done,” Trump made the case in a televised address on Wednesday night that America has “beaten and completely decimated Iran” and suggested that the conflict was “very close” to completion and would wrap up over the next two to three weeks.

“Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating, large-scale losses in a matter of weeks,” Trump said, noting the damage inflicted to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Navy, and missile program.

Trump said he would prefer to make a deal with Iran, and would launch attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure and energy facilities if it did not agree to one. But he appeared to suggest that the US would wrap up operations soon either way. Trump seemed to be asking Americans for patience, noting that the war was far shorter than previous conflicts like World War II and Vietnam.

There are a number of ways the situation could still change dramatically in the next few weeks, but if Trump is, in fact, starting the process of winding down the war, there are a few lessons we can already take from it.

The war may not really be ending

One military cliché has been getting a workout over the past month: In any war plan, the enemy gets a vote. That’s just as true in any withdrawal plan. Iran may not stop fighting just because the United States stops bombing. Given that its air defenses proved completely incapable of stopping the US and Israeli bombardment, Iran could look to raise the costs to the US and its allies to the point where they will be deterred from simply coming back and bombing Iran again in six months.

In particular, Iran may not be in a rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the vital global energy chokepoint it has effectively shut down. Hormuz has emerged as Iran’s main point of leverage in this conflict, and leaders in Tehran will be reluctant to give it up. Over the weekend, Iran’s parliament passed a measure authorizing the collection of tolls from ships transiting the Strait, though it’s not clear how that would work in practice.

Trump suggested in his speech that he was unbothered by this, saying that the Strait would “just open up naturally” once the war ended, but also calling on countries that rely on it to show some “long delayed courage” and reopen it themselves.

A group of European countries is reportedly preparing a diplomatic push to do that, with military options possible as a last resort. Some Persian Gulf countries, notably the United Arab Emirates, are also reportedly pushing for a military coalition to open the Strait by force.

It’s also worth noting that US forces are still heading to the region. A second Marine Expeditionary Unit, consisting of about 2,200 Marines and three warships, is due to arrive in a few weeks to join another MEU as well as elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, who were deployed to the region last week. These forces, designed for rapid deployments to seize and hold territory, could be a form of negotiating leverage for the US as it winds down the conflict, or could give the president additional military options if he changes his mind.

Then there’s the “axis of resistance”: Iran’s regional proxies, badly weakened by Israel’s post–Oct. 7 offensive, seemed like a non-factor in the war’s early days. But lately they’ve made their presence felt. Yemen’s Houthis, who sat out most of the war’s first month, have begun firing missiles at Israel. Iraqi militias have been stepping up their attack on US........

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