5 ways the Iran standoff could end |
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5 ways the Iran standoff could end
Is the US on the verge of a deal with Iran or a return to war?
Despite the US and Iran exchanging fire and new missile attacks aimed at the United Arab Emirates this week, the Trump administration maintains that the ceasefire that began in early April is still in effect. Iran’s attacks on commercial and US Navy ships are still “all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point,” according to Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine.
At the same time, Iran’s chokehold on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect, with experts predicting only weeks left before a catastrophic global energy crunch. And the US blockade on Iranian ports is already having a devastating impact on the war-battered country’s economy.
Is there a way out? The US began a naval operation, “Project Freedom,” over the weekend to escort stranded ships out of the strait, but President Donald Trump paused it on Tuesday, citing progress in diplomatic negotiations. On Wednesday, Axios’s Barak Ravid reported the US and Iran were close to a deal to end the standoff. Oil prices began plummeting, but then paused when Trump poured some cold water on the reporting, saying it was a “big assumption” that “Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to.”
In short, no one really knows how this stalemate will end, but a few plausible scenarios are taking shape.
Ravid’s reporting, which appears to be heavily based on sources within the Trump administration, suggests the two sides are close to agreement on a “one-page memorandum,” that would include lifting both sides’ restrictions on shipping........