How to save Social Security without screwing over poor people
The other day, economist Tyler Cowen made an offhand observation that took me aback a bit: that the French, today, enjoy “the longest financed retirements ever seen in the history of the world.”
Verifying the “history of the world” part is beyond my historical skill level. That said, the OECD’s Pensions at a Glance report from 2023 confirms that French retirees are enjoying a lot of years off the job.
French men, per the report, left the labor force at an average age of 60.7. At that point, they have a life expectancy of 84, meaning they can expect 23.3 years in retirement, longer than any of the other countries the OECD examined (mostly rich peer nations plus a few select others). French women can expect 26.1 years in retirement, which is beaten by Luxembourg, Spain, Slovenia, and the world leader, Saudi Arabia, but still very high. (The Saudi case is more about women working fewer and shorter stints than in more liberal polities, as opposed to retirement policy.)
French men and women alike can expect over five additional years in retirement compared to Americans.
Incidentally, the French government fell this week in part due to opposition parties demanding that the centrist coalition in power go back on its decision to raise the formal retirement age from 62 to 64. Funding 23 to 26 years of retirement per person is expensive, which is exactly why President Emmanuel Macron raised the age in the first place, but when the elderly voter bloc is only growing in size, failing to pay that money out can be politically suicidal.
Retirement, American-style
As a non-Frenchman, this fight inevitably makes me think about the coming retirement battle in the US. Our Social Security trust fund is due to be depleted in about eight years. Under current law, when that happens, retirees will see an across-the-board cut of about 23 percent in their benefit levels. Everything I know about how the US government works tells me it will not get to that point. The question, then, is what a deal to prevent those cuts would look like.
One obvious way to avoid the French predicament is........
