The next redistricting war will be even harder for Democrats |
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The next redistricting war will be even harder for Democrats
With the Voting Rights Act gutted, Democrats face tough decisions about preserving racial representation.
Just as the redistricting wars were coming to a close, the Supreme Court blew up the entire landscape with a decision that all but gutted the Voting Rights Act.
And since that decision last week, Republicans around the country have been moving quickly to see how they can take advantage of the new redistricting rules. Republican-led states, particularly in the South, can now eliminate a swath of majority-minority Democratic districts and max out the seats the GOP can hold.
The Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais has encouraged Republicans across the nation who want to redraw congressional maps to eliminate Democratic-held, majority-minority seats, particularly in the South. That’s on top of the 2026 mid-decade redistricting moves they made this year.
Democrats want to respond after the midterms with similar redraws to eliminate Republican seats in Democratic-run states.
But that puts Democrats in a tough situation: They may have to dilute majority Black and Latino districts to do this, and have conversations about how to preserve racial representation.
At least six Republican governors, in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Mississippi, have already said they intend to do this — though only Louisiana and Tennessee look likely to be able to redraw their maps in time for the 2026 midterm elections. That’s in addition to the round of mid-decade redistricting that Florida capped off last week by creating four more GOP-friendly seats.
Under the new redistricting playing field that the Supreme Court has created, Republicans stand to gain up to 19 new seats over the next two cycles, according to an analysis by Fair Fight Action circulating among Democrats. Democrats are now once again under pressure to retaliate by using the same court decision to increase their advantage in states like New York, California, Colorado, Maryland, and Illinois in 2028 and beyond. The same Fair Fight Action report maps out ways they could squeeze 10 to 22 more friendly seats in response.
“I can’t speak for my chairwoman, but I’d take 52 seats from California and 17 seats from Illinois,” Alabama Rep. Terri Sewell, whose district is likely to be eliminated after the Supreme Court decision, told reporters. In other words, a fully Democratic map in both states.
But that kind of total-war approach can’t happen without changing the makeup and lines of districts traditionally held by Black, Hispanic, and some Asian American representatives. It would require two sacrifices: for some nonwhite Democratic politicians to potentially give up seats the civil rights movement fought to create, and for voters of color to give up influence in House districts........