The most volatile group of voters is turning on Trump |
Key takeaways
After young voters swung toward Republicans in 2024, one popular explanation argued that there are two distinct kinds of Gen Z. Those who came of age during and after the Covid pandemic seemed more Trump-curious and conservative. New data suggests that a divide does exist, but it might not be as simple as an older, more progressive cohort and a younger, more right-wing cohort, as some conservatives describe the split. Instead, the youngest cohort of Gen Z might be leading a reactionary, anti-system trend among the young Americans, which is fueling frustration at Donald Trump.Over the last year, the youngest generation of American voters have scrambled a lot of our understanding of politics.
The Gen Z cohort swung hard toward Republicans last year, moving anywhere from 6 to 21 points toward President Donald Trump (depending on the data source) compared to 2020. But, they now appear to be just as aggressively swinging away. In recent polls, they prefer Democratic congressional control by 17 points in 2026 and, now, strongly disapprove of Trump — a flip from earlier this year.
This swerve back includes young men — that segment of the country that Democrats, and a lot of the media, spent the last two years fixated on understanding. After all, reports over the last few years suggested these young Americans were becoming more conservative. They were getting more religious, were more Trump-curious, and were rebelling against Democrats and popular culture for making traditional masculinity taboo — all while dealing with a mental health and loneliness crisis.
Could they have become bleeding heart liberals over the course of a few months? The answer may determine more than just the midterm elections. Different segments of Gen Z may have different reasons for feeling disillusioned with party politics and the state of the nation. And that may determine what the next generation of political leaders will have to say and propose to re-spark faith in the political system.
To analyze this question, I revisited one popular theory that I tried to articulate in the spring: There are two distinct kinds of Gen Z. One is an older cohort, generally born between 1995 and 2001 — more loyal to Democrats and familiar with a pre-pandemic way of life. The other is a younger one, born after 2002 — raised during and after........