For all the talk of a new, lasting multiracial coalition that helped elect Donald Trump, there are clues that this support may be wavering, particularly among Latino voters. Polls show the president’s approval rating with this group has plummeted since the last election, and a third of Latinos who voted for him say they are unlikely to back a Republican candidate in the next one.

This collapse happened for a few reasons. Latino voters are not only souring on the president generally, but also on his handling of key issues like immigration and the economy — the very topics that boosted his support with them initially. And curiously, this decline in support for the president isn’t translating into a surge for Democrats. Instead, many Latino voters express dissatisfaction with both parties.

This shifting dynamic suggests that both parties have been operating on flawed assumptions over the last few years. Democrats made the mistake of treating Latinos as a monolithic group, focusing on social justice issues while failing to address economic concerns that were pushing these voters toward the GOP.

Now, Republicans may be poised to make a similar mistake. They have largely viewed these voters as Republicans-in-waiting, banking on a rightward drift that they assume extends to the most extreme parts of the conservative social agenda. This approach risks alienating a large segment of the Latino electorate. Ultimately, both parties are learning a crucial lesson: Demographics aren’t destiny, and they need a more nuanced understanding of this diverse and rapidly changing group of voters.

The Democrats’ shrinking Latino majority

Over the last decade, Trump has remade the American electorate with the help of Latino voters. Back in 2016, his highly racialized and polarizing election victory resulted in one of the worst performances with Latino voters in modern history, winning fewer than three in 10 Hispanic and Latino voters, well below average for Republican candidates.

But splits began to develop among Latino communities in the US over the next few years. Working class, non-college educated, and male Latinos, as well as those from Florida and the Southwest, began to drift away from Democrats, particularly at the national level. They were more intrigued by........

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