Tariffs. United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. National Guard deployments. The Epstein files. Strikes on Iran. Gaza and Ukraine. Sticky inflation. The first year of President Donald Trump’s time in office has been a firehose of unpopular policies, confrontational tactics, and frequent clashes with his perceived enemies.

Each of these developments has tended to trigger the same question: Will any of this matter to the voters who made up his winning coalition in 2024? Will he bleed support, fracture his coalition, and doom future Republicans? Or was 2024 a more durable realignment in American politics?

The answer isn’t as clear-cut as headlines often make it out to be. There has been some slippage in support among Trump’s 2024 voting coalition, but it’s not the GOP doomsday scenario some headlines have tended to make it out to be (for example, saying that the coalition has “fallen apart”).

Similar cases were made after Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, after American strikes on Iran, after the Epstein files took over headlines, and as Trump began to enforce his immigration policies and carry out deportations. Yet, through it all, this summer and entering fall, his popularity and approval ratings have remained steady — negative,........

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