3 theories that explain Trump’s collapsing support |
The second Trump administration started off with a bang: riding the high of 2024’s historic levels of new multiracial and working class support, bullying law firms and universities, flinging out executive orders and DOGE restructurings like nobody’s business. A Republican-controlled Congress was ready to implement President Donald Trump’s agenda, and his deportation and tariff policies were about to roll out.
If you fast-forward to today, however, the vibes are very different.
Whether it concerns his management of the economy or his program of mass deportation, each day seems to bring more evidence that Trump’s 2024 coalition is disintegrating. Meanwhile, Trump’s biggest supporters in the online influencer space and commentariat are either at war with each other or less than thrilled about him. Voters, for their part, have consistently registered their anger at the GOP, in elections from New Jersey to Tennessee.
It’s clear, in other words, that Trump’s 2024 coalition is fraying. What is less clear is exactly why. What I found in my reporting, though, suggests that while the ultimate answer may still be beyond our reach, there are three broad theories that have taken hold among pollsters, politicos, and others with a professional focus on this central question in American politics. The three theories are as follows:
The low-propensity voters theory, which holds that the collapse in Trump’s approval and support is mostly a natural byproduct of the kind of anti-politics voters that he won so convincingly in 2024. The affordability voters theory, which holds that Trump is suffering most with the kind of people who prioritized the economy and affordability above other things. The “new entrant” GOP voters theory, which holds that there’s a distinct subset of the Republican coalition that is primarily younger and more progressive but nevertheless voted for Trump last year.While these three explanations are hardly mutually exclusive, a lot hinges on which theory Republicans conclude best explains their recent political struggles — if they acknowledge they have a problem, that is.
If they believe their fortunes are riding on low-propensity voters, for example, they may be more likely to try different media or campaign messaging, pull back on tariffs, or try to appeal to more college-educated voters to right the ship. If they believe in the new entrant theory, on the other hand, it’s possible they might try to wade into the online debates over the future of the right, or try to moderate some social positions instead. Democratic strategists will, of course, be drawing their own conclusions, too. And the answers both parties reach could have a major influence on US politics in the years to come.
The low-propensity voter theory
Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at the research firm Echelon Insights, is a longtime Republican Party pollster and strategist, as well as the author of Party of the People, a 2023 book that, I admit, was remarkably prescient about what would happen in the 2024 election.
One surprising thing
As much as there are worrying signs for Republicans, I found one