The global decline in murder, explained in one chart |
One source of good news — favored both by me and, apparently, venture capitalists — is what’s known as a “narrative violation.” A narrative violation occurs when everyone thinks one thing, but the actual evidence suggests the opposite.
And few narratives are more persistently violated than one common belief: “Violent crime is always going up.”
A 2023 survey from IPSOS of people in 30 countries found that 70 percent of respondents thought the world was becoming more violent and dangerous. Here in the US, majorities have told pollsters almost every year since the early 1990s that violent crime is going up. And other surveys indicate that many people around the world insist that life was better and often safer 50 years ago than it is today.
So, that’s the narrative. Here’s the violation: When you actually look at data on murder, it shows that the world has largely been getting safer, both as compared to the more distant past and in this century. I wrote earlier this year about how the 1990s were actually an extraordinarily violent decade in the US and how violent crime in the US this year may be headed towards record lows, even as many Americans — including the President — insist it isn’t.
Now, recently updated data from the World Bank looks at the picture from a global perspective and finds something astonishing. Between 2000 and 2023, the international homicide rate fell from roughly 6.9 deaths per 100,000 people to around 5.2 per 100,000 people in 2023.........