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Why a little delusion is good for you

You just have to strike a balance between optimism and realism.

Where would humanity be without our mild delusion? Many of the technologies we take for granted, from the light bulb to iPhones, would cease to exist without relentless resolve. Stephen King, rejected dozens of times, persisted and became one of the world’s top-selling authors. Any entrepreneur maintains a bit of in the face of the staggering statistic that nearly half of US businesses close within five years. Hopeful romantics are indeed a touch overconfident when you consider a third of Americans who have ever wed get divorced.

So we pursue longshot careers and love, buy lottery tickets, and train hard to better our 5k time due to a tendency to assume the best, known as the optimism bias. The phenomenon describes the near-universal disposition to overestimate the likelihood of good things happening, and underplaying the risk of negative ones. Whenever anyone considers themselves smarter or more capable than the average person or more likely to win big at a casino, that’s the optimism bias at work.

Plane crashes, pandemics, toxic spatulas. How do we live with so much risk?

It stands to reason, then, that moderate delusion can be a positive force. Research has found a sunny disposition to mitigate symptoms of depression. When you expect the best, you’re less stressed and anxious and actually perceive a higher quality of life. But there are also limits. Unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behaviors: overspending (I’ll make more money soon!), not wearing a seat belt (Other people get in car accidents, not me!) or forgoing insurance (I’m healthier than most!). Then there’s the inevitable disappointment if you fail to land the promotion you swore you were getting, or if your feelings for your crush go unrequited.

“Some people say you should be very pessimistic, because then you’re never disappointed,” says Chris Dawson, a professor of economics and behavioral science at the........

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