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A Super El Niño Is Developing, and It Could Have a Strange Effect on Birth Rates

Warm weather makes people happy, and happy people have more sex. But there’s a catch.

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Every few years, the internet dusts off the baby boom theory—a heat wave hits, people get optimistic, and someone starts connecting dots between rising temperatures and rising birth rates. The logic, as it happens, is a little more complicated than that.

The World Meteorological Organization has warned there’s an 80 percent likelihood of an El Niño event between June and August 2026, and experts are already weighing in on what that means for birth rates.

El Niño refers to the warming of ocean surfaces above average sea temperatures, which drives hotter conditions worldwide. Given that global birth rates have been in steady decline for years, the question of whether a heat event could scooch........

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