Marco Rubio is having his moment. The Trump administration’s recent streak of foreign policy endeavors has thrust the secretary of State into the spotlight, and he has risen to the occasion.

Rubio has repeatedly managed to justify the Trump administration’s controversial actions with legitimate foreign policy rationales, and he is the only one able to do so consistently across departments. 

His talents within this administration have naturally put his name into the 2028 conversation, with many pundits pitting him and Vice President JD Vance against each other as likely rivals in the post-Trump era. 

However, I am of the opinion that 2028 may not be Rubio’s best time to run for president.

Vance has a large natural advantage as the sitting vice president, with his more natural appeal to the MAGA base, and 2028 might be an unfavorable election cycle for Republicans, particularly incumbents. Rubio, who is 54, could find a better path to the presidency in 2032.

I'm skeptical of Marco Rubio's ability to win in 2028

Rubio is far and away my preferred candidate of the likely successors to President Donald Trump. He strikes me as the only adult in the room within this administration because he is competent in navigating a complex foreign policy approach, and he has largely done so rooted in conservative principles, rather than simply shilling for Trump. 

However, as it has been made frustratingly clear across the past decade, I am not the type of voter the Republican Party has any interest in appealing to. No longer does the party feel that it needs the votes of conservatives like me to win. Republican leaders would rather orient their entire platform behind Trump than go against his base. 

That political calculation is why I am nervous about Rubio’s prospects. The MAGA constituency broadly is skeptical of foreign engagements, which is why on the campaign trail, Trump dabbled in isolationist rhetoric, along with selecting Vance, one of the most anti-intervention senators.

While Trump might be able to justify these matters to the people who voted for them because of his grip on that constituency, someone like Rubio is likely to have a harder time doing so. 

Vance, on the other hand, might be the more natural messenger to MAGA, particularly if Trump’s foreign policy becomes less popular over time, while being able to distance himself from that policy should he need to convince Republican voters he's not Trump.

Essentially, Vance’s baggage would hurt him in the general election; Rubio’s baggage would hurt him in the Republican primary election for the presidential nominee.

2028 is shaping up to be a bad year for Republicans

While I continue to be annoyed at the state of the Republican Party, in this case, there may be a path to getting someone other than Vance into office in the near future. 

Despite the vice presidency being a good springboard to receiving your party’s nomination, the track record for vice presidents winning the general election is not good. This is because it gives you an early advantage in your own base, but it also ties you to the baggage of the incumbent administration for the general election voters.

This effect is more pronounced in unpopular administrations, such as this one. Trump’s approval rating is bad and has been decreasing. If the economy continues to struggle, or even simply fails to improve, Republicans could be in a very poor position for 2028.

The good thing about Rubio is that he is smart, and he probably recognizes the difficult tightrope walk ahead of him for the GOP nomination. I think that Rubio is able to recognize he has an uphill battle against Vance, and that the nomination in 2028 might not even be a desirable one, given the circumstances that Trump’s exit will leave the Republican Party. 

The better option for Rubio might be to wait. It allows Vance to burn himself out on the nomination in 2028, likely taking himself out of the 2032 fight with a loss. Meanwhile, Rubio can put years between his ties to Trump’s presidency and his run in the likely more favorable 2032 environment. 

While I do find it frustrating that the Republican Party is in a state where Vance could win the nomination over the far more capable Rubio, in this case, it may be a positive to let the sitting vice president take a crack at the unpopular nomination. 

Dace Potas is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY and a graduate of DePaul University with a degree in political science.

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