The presidential election officially is decided by the states through the Electoral College. But to fully understand the race’s dynamics, it also helps to look one level down – at counties.
That’s what U.S. News has done through a series examining 15 battleground counties that could prove key in this year’s race for the White House.
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Eleven of the 15 counties are located in the seven presidential swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – on the logic that a county’s electoral leverage is greater when it sits in the most competitive states. Three of the remaining four counties are in large states that are on the periphery of competitiveness – Florida and Texas – and one county is in a category all its own because it sits in Nebraska, which allocates some of its electoral votes by congressional district.
Because political geography today usually correlates with population density – denser cities and suburbs tend to be bluer, while rural areas are usually redder – the 15 counties comprising this list are probably tilted a bit toward Democratic-leaning areas. Still, goals were to include counties of different sizes and different partisan trajectories. Seven of the jurisdictions on the list are large urban-suburban counties, three are purely suburban and the remaining five are anchored by a midsize city rather than a large metropolis.
The counties offer a mix of racial, ethnic and income demographics. Also, each is in some degree of political transition. How those transitions proceed – and how they balance each other out – could impact who wins the presidency in 2024.
Here's more on U.S. News’ 15 key counties to watch in the 2024 presidential race,........