Immigration is seen as one of the most important issues in the 2024 presidential election, as the leading candidates and their surrogates trade barbs over the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border and how it is impacting nearby states and the country as a whole.
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Arizona is one of those border states, and its centrality to the national conversation around immigration policy as well as its recent general election history make it a crucial swing state in the race to the White House.
According to a literal definition, a swing state is where candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties “have similar levels of support,” and one that’s “considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections.” Some states have had this label for decades, while others – such as Georgia – have become swing states more recently due to changing demographics, turnout levels and other factors.
The Grand Canyon State fits more with the latter group. While for decades it has been characterized as a red state – including for presidential elections – President Joe Biden flipped Arizona by about 10,000 votes in 2020. Former President Donald Trump, coming off an easy Arizona primary victory in mid-March and the official GOP nomination in July, is hoping to bring the state and its 11 electoral votes back into the GOP’s hands in the fall. This time, he’ll be opposing Vice President Kamala Harris, after Biden upended the race by dropping out just days after the Republican National Convention.
Here’s what you need to know about Arizona – which was No. 32 in the most recent Best States rankings by U.S. News – as a 2024 battleground.
Before Biden’s departure from the campaign, U.S. News in June handicapped Arizona as one of a handful of “toss-up” states for the 2024 presidential election. That designation is a testament to the changing demographics of the state, which has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. Beyond Biden’s slim victory there in 2020 and former President Bill Clinton’s Arizona win on the path to reelection in 1996, the state hadn’t supported a national Democratic candidate since 1948.
But Arizona’s 11 electoral votes put it in the top 15 among all states, and it, like other swing states, is somewhat of a bellwether: Eight of the past 12 presidential election winners also won the Grand Canyon State.
Both parties therefore have their eyes on Arizona. Biden visited the state in March........