Another year of climate breakdown approaches its end, marked by reports that 2024 will be the first year in which the world’s average surface temperature exceeded the pre-industrial average by 1.5 degrees Celsius (1.5°C) — and by another COP climate conference. Would the 29th in the series, held in Azerbaijan, be more of the same, a fossil fuel-friendly cop-out?
It began with poetry. The COP29 president, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources H. E. Mukhtar Babayev, addressed a 9,000-word letter to delegates, laying out areas to be discussed. At its head, an epigraph from a Persian poet, Nizami Ganjavi, warning humankind that it could “destroy itself” if harmony “between people and nature” is lost.
The president’s concern, needless to say, was entirely feigned. Babayev’s epistle evaded mention of fossil fuels, except in a positive light. This was predictable. Prior to entering politics he worked for SOCAR, an oil company that stands accused of large-scale pollution as well as violations of human rights and workers’ health and safety. Even as its former employee presided over the COP’s opening ceremonies, SOCAR was pressing ahead with a massive expansion of drilling operations.
Altogether, COP29 was a shambolic and fractured event. The host nation used the opportunity to arrange new fossil fuel deals and granted access to 1,773 fossil fuel lobbyists plus 480 lobbyists for carbon capture and storage — Big Oil’s latest dangerous and dishonest ruse to justify continued drilling. The conference’s other failures include Saudi Arabia’s attempt, with considerable impact, to stifle any discussion of transitioning from fossil fuels; the rich countries’ refusal to pay poor countries remotely near the requisite figure to help cover decarbonization efforts and their “loss and damage” from climate change; and a revival of markets for carbon “offsets” — the scam by which rich countries and corporations pay for climate-related activities in low-wage economies in order to justify by some supernatural calculus their own failure to cut emissions. Absent were the leaders of most of the jurisdictions responsible for the climate crisis: the United States, China, the EU, Russia, Germany, Canada, Australia and France.
On the other side of the climate justice scales, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape announced that his government would not attend, in protest at the big polluters’ refusal to provide “support to victims of climate change.”
The perfidy, venality and “bullshit” on display at COP29 prompted Albania’s prime minister, Edi Rama, to veer off script in a moment of emperor’s-new-clothes candor: “What on Earth are we doing in this gathering over and over,” he said, “if there is no common political will on the horizon to go beyond words and unite for meaningful action? And adding insult to the injury, some major and minor players even boycotted this annual global event.”
If Rama won admiration for his truthfulness, the clarion words were those of Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados. A paper she submitted to the COP organizers lays out what is at stake. The extreme weather events of recent years, it warns, “suggest that humanity and the planet are hurtling toward … the ultimate tipping point.”
Tipping points are moments at which a small change irreversibly alters the trajectory of a system. When you lean back on a chair, before the tipping point you can maintain equilibrium; once past it, you’re heading for the floor.
As the danger of crossing Earth system tipping points grows, and energy-economic tipping points remain a distant dream, attention is turning to social tipping points.
In 2015, when delegates at COP21 in Paris pledged to keep the Earth’s temperature to “well below........