Iraq at the Crossroads: Maliki's Return and the Battle for the Middle East's Future |
The rumble of history is returning to Baghdad. With Iraq’s dominant Shi’ite Coordination Framework nominating Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister, the nation stands on the brink of a moment that could reshape its trajectory at home and abroad. Maliki, Iraq’s most polarizing statesman since the 2003 invasion, is poised for a political comeback that has left Washington jittery, Tehran hopeful, and Iraqi Sunnis, Kurds and civil society fearful of a return to the sectarian politics that once tore the country apart.
On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio telephoned incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani with a blunt message. Iraq must not allow itself to become a puppet of Iran again! Rubio emphasized that “a government controlled by Iran cannot successfully put Iraq’s own interests first, keep Iraq out of regional conflicts, or advance the mutually beneficial partnership” between Washington and Baghdad.
This is not just diplomatic rhetoric. The U.S. holds considerable leverage over Iraq, including the lion’s share of its oil export revenues, which are still managed through accounts at the U.S. Federal Reserve in New York, a vestige of post-2003 economic arrangements that grant Washington powerful financial influence. The Rubio warning also resonates against a backdrop of fiery U.S./Iran tensions. Iran’s theocratic regime has been battered by a nationwide uprising and regional setbacks, including the collapse of its alliance with Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In that vacuum, Tehran sees an Iraqi government sympathetic to its worldview as a rare strategic gain.
For Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds, Maliki’s name is not just familiar,........