Michigan remains one of the country’s most important battleground states. In 2024, Donald Trump flipped Michigan by roughly 1.4 points, with a record 5.7 million ballots cast. His victory depended in part on voters who do not consistently participate outside presidential elections. That creates a major challenge for Republicans in 2026. Michigan turnout falls significantly between presidential elections and midterms, and in a state where elections are regularly decided by only a few points, hundreds of thousands of voters staying home can determine the U.S. Senate race, governorship, legislative control, and races further down the ballot.

At the same time, Republicans face political headwinds. Higher energy costs, pressure on the auto industry, tariffs, inflation concerns, and the war in Iran could affect working-class voters who helped form Trump’s 2024 coalition. Recent primary turnout should also serve as a warning, with Democratic participation outpacing Republican turnout in major statewide contests. The stakes are significant: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate, while Democrat Jocelyn Benson faces Republican John James for governor.

Because of these challenges, Republicans cannot depend only on voters who participate in every election. They must reach low-propensity voters,........

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