From the clutter of midterm election poll results, it's possible sometimes to see new patterns of political support emerging.

The overall pattern, as it stands, makes some sense. As in the 2006 and 2018 off-year cycles, the Republican president's job approval had sagged to well below 50 percent. Polls at this point in the year showed Democrats competitive in states and districts that the president had carried by solid margins two years before.

Democrats ended up gaining 30 House seats in 2006 and 41 in 2018, ousting Republican speakers and, in both elections, installing Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). A similar result is expected this time, with Democrats needing to gain only three seats to win control, though Pelosi is retiring from Congress at age 86.

Such gains are not necessarily inevitable. Census redistricting ended up favoring Republicans. As Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini has pointed out, the summer polling understated Republicans' fall polling and November percentages in Senate races in 2014, 2018 and 2022. But he spots no similar move in polls conducted up through mid-September.

What I find striking is a sharp divergence in Senate polling between what have turned out to be seriously contested races in the North and in the South.

According to RealClearPolitics, in the South, Democrats have big leads in North Carolina ( 8) and Georgia ( 7). They narrowly lead in Texas ( 2) and are only slightly behind in South Carolina (-3). In each state, they're polling far ahead of Trump 2024 benchmarks in North Carolina (Trump 3), Georgia (Trump 2), Texas (Trump 14) and South Carolina (Trump 18).

Overall, these Trump 9 Southern states are averaging 3 Democratic in Senate races — a big 12 Democratic swing.

The picture is different in four states up on the Canadian border. Democrats have only narrow edges in RealClearPolitics averages in Maine ( 2), New Hampshire ( 5), Michigan ( 3) and Minnesota ( 4). These numbers are in line with 2024 benchmarks in Maine (Harris 7), New Hampshire (Harris 3), Michigan (Trump 1) and Minnesota (Harris 4).

Overall, these four states that averaged Harris 3 are now averaging Democrats 3. No swing at all.

What accounts for the difference? One answer that quickly occurs is candidate selection.

Trump effectively chose the........

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