All Redistricting Reformers Are Hypocrites
Hypocrisy was triumphant, as it usually is in arguments over redistricting, in Virginia this week, as voters approved a "fairness" constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-majority legislature to enact a congressional districting plan that is expected to increase Democrats' edge in its congressional delegation from 6-5 to 10-1. This is a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried over then-candidate Donald Trump by a 52 percent to 46 percent margin.
Before this year, Virginia Democrats had been bragging about the bipartisan redistricting process they created and voters approved in 2020. Each party was to appoint an expert, and if they agreed on a plan, it was adopted. After the 2020 Census, Virginia's congressional map was drawn by political scientists Bernard Grofman and Sean Trende, a longtime friend of Grofman. The result was four strongly Democratic districts, four less strongly Republican ones, two narrowly Democratic seats in Northern Virginia, and one true tossup in the Hampton Roads region.
In a Democratic-leaning year, as 2026 appears to be, Democrats could easily win seven or eight of these seats, and, in a more Republican-leaning year than 2024, Republicans could easily win six or maybe seven. About what you'd expect in a 52-46 Democratic state.
But when Trump successfully urged Texas Republicans last summer to revise their post-2020 plan and said he hoped they might win an additional five seats, Virginia Democrats sidelined — just temporarily, they said — their heartfelt commitment to bipartisan districting and set about putting in place their plan to gain four seats.
The good news is that there's a penalty, exacted by voters, for hypocrisy. Texas Republicans' new plan looks unlikely to net the promised five seats, given the collapse of Trump's popularity among Hispanic voters, a majority force in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.
And Virginia voters' approval of the Democrats' plan by only a 51 percent to 49 percent margin, in a state that elected Democrat Abigail Spanberger governor last November by a 58 percent to 42 percent margin, suggests that their new bacon strip may not elect all Democrats (my candidate is the lobster-shaped 7th district).
Who started........
