How My 2025 Predictions Went – and Some Predictions for 2026 |
It’s that time of year again, when I assess my past prognostications and offer some fresh ones. In my January 2, 2025, column entitled “How My 2024 Predictions Went – And Some Predictions for 2025,” I made 20 predictions in those heady days post-Trump’s election victory. I had a pretty good accuracy rate. If you are playing baseball, I calculate I was batting .750. Not bad.
I thought the Senate would confirm almost all of Trump’s nominees because the Senate Republicans were not stupid; for once, it did. I severely underestimated Mike Johnson, though – the guy pulled it off. He kept a razor-thin majority alive and got the Big Beautiful Bill and other critical stuff passed. I know conservatives are mad because Johnson and John Thune – who has also done a great job – have not passed a bunch of other things, so let’s make 2026 the “Year of Angry Conservatives Learning What The Hell The Filibuster Is.”
I expected the tech overlords to get frustrated at having to move at the speed of government and depart from their temporary alliance with the GOP. However, the Dems stepped up, showed the depths of their crazy (California wealth tax, anyone?), and the tech bros have come back.
I thought the economy would boom under Trump in 2025, and it has started to, but right at the wire in the last couple of months. You’ll see that prediction again below.
I thought the Houthis would knock it off, and they have. I thought China would leave Taiwan alone but keep building up. Correct. I also thought that Trump would end the war in Ukraine, but that has not happened yet (he ended several other conflicts, though, and I bet he pulls it off in 2026). I correctly assessed that Israel would kill the semi-human Hamas scumbags in heaps until they groveled for peace, which they have; though I did not expect so many of the hostages to survive. Glad I was partially wrong on that one. And I predicted that, “Iran’s mullahs will behave or die. Personally, I prefer option two.” I got my wish.
I was right that Canada did not become our 51st state and that Trudeau would go; I did not expect it would be an intraparty change and that the ridiculous Canadians would elect Trudeau, less Castro’s seed. I was right that we did not buy Greenland, and that we should just take it.
No, SCOTUS did not issue any major Second Amendment rulings last year. We can hope that changes in 2026.
I thought GOP tofu-spines Joni Ernst and/or Thom Tillis would face a serious primary; I was only technically wrong – both retired rather than fight for their tiresome brand of invertebrate Fredoconnectivity. I was right that some soft Republicans would make another run at amnesty via “comprehensive immigration reform,” and I was right that this idea went over like a leper at a jacuzzi party.
I called it re: JD Vance. He became Trump’s go-to Mr. Fix-it and has been deep in the mix in the administration. I was right that the media would try and fail to drive a wedge between him and Trump.
I was right that Kamala Harris would not run for California governor. It appears........