HANSON: Iran — A longer view |
SIMMONS SAYS: Leafs took too long trying to get Mats Sundin involved again
LILLEY: Ford caves to mob driven by petty jealousy, sells government jet
Mark Carney vows to 'never sugarcoat our challenges'; calls ties with U.S. a 'weakness' in speech to Canadians
GOLDSTEIN: Climate hysteria wasted our money, failed to reduce need for fossil fuels
Jordan Peterson battling 'old neurological injury,' his daughter says
Share this Story : Toronto Sun Copy Link Email X Reddit Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr
HANSON: Iran — A longer view
There is good reason to believe in an eventual outcome quite favourable to the U.S. and one far better than the status quo
You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.
The prognosis of the Iran war is now so couched in politics and so warped by the American Left that the public has grown tired and wants it all to go away. But in truth, the situation is so fluid that any accurate prediction is impossible. Yet there is good reason to believe in an eventual outcome quite favourable to the U.S. and one far better than the status quo ante bellum.
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account.
Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on.
Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists.
Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists.
Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account.
Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on.
Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists.
Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists.
Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
Access articles from across Canada with one account.
Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.
Enjoy additional articles per month.
Get email updates from your favourite authors.
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
Access articles from across Canada with one account
Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments
Enjoy additional articles per month
Get email updates from your favourite authors
Don't have an account? Create Account
HANSON: Iran — A longer view Back to video
Prior to President Donald Trump’s most recent announcement that the United States would first blockade and then reopen and control traffic through the Strait, only a few ships were going through, mostly those aligned with Iran, opposed to the U.S., or neutral.
Thus, the Strait was disrupted to a far greater degree than during Iran’s earlier efforts at closure during the “Tanker War” phase of the Iran-Iraq War, as well as its chronic harassment of shipping in 2018-19. And now?
If Trump quickly clears and secures control of the Strait, and if allowable traffic reaches, say, 60-70% of pre-war levels and if the U.S. avoids a full-scale war, instead responding disproportionately to any renewed Iranian attempts to close it — then, within one to two months, oil prices will begin to taper off.
The American challenge with the war is not military but political. This time, the U.S. is not sending Marines to fight house to house in Fallujah or to scour villages on the ground in Helmand Province–losing hundreds in casualties and fighting in circumstances favorable to jihadists and terrorists.
Instead, the administration is restrained in its use of force only by concerns about the war’s effects on the U.S. economy, global oil prices, domestic gas prices, the midterm elections, and the political fortunes of vulnerable Republican members of Congress.
Militarily, the U.S. has choices. The Navy can continue demining the Strait, rotate patrols of U.S. and allied warships through it, allow allied and neutral shipping to pass while blocking Iranian-bound ships, and periodically strike Iran whenever it attempts to disrupt shipping — including clearing its coasts of missiles and drones.
In other words, Trump can flip the Iranian strategy of selective entrance to the Strait, with the key difference........