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LILLEY: Doug Ford's poll numbers slump as government seems aimless

Government has been in power nearly eight years and is starting to look like it has lost all direction.

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We are just over a month until we hit the eighth anniversary of Doug Ford being elected premier. He’s had some good times and some bad times over those eight years, and he’s surprised plenty of people by surviving as long as he has, especially after his first year.

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Ford has overseen tremendous growth in Ontario; our population has increased by two million people since he took office, and the provincial budget has grown by 54% in that time. Contrary to popular narratives, most of the increase in government spending under Ford has gone to health care with more than 50 hospital projects launched to build, expand or upgrade facilities.

LILLEY: Doug Ford's poll numbers slump as government seems aimless Back to video

He’s launched major infrastructure projects that will benefit the province for decades after he’s out of office such as the Ontario Line subway project in Toronto or LRT projects in Hamilton, Ottawa and Mississauga. Highway projects, long delayed by former governments, like the 413, the Bradford Bypass, twinning the Garden City Skyway and expanding Highways 3, 7 and 69.

But what have you done for me lately

And yet … Ford’s poll numbers are falling.

The most recent Abacus Data poll puts Ford’s PC Party in a statistical tie with the leaderless Liberals — 37% for the PCs, 36% for the Liberals with the NDP back at 17% and Greens at 5%. The Abacus poll has Ford at 32% among women while the Liberals are at 42% with women.

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In the last Abacus poll taken before the February 2025 election where Ford’s PC’s took 43% of the vote, 38% of women said they would back Ford’s team compared to 31% who said they would back Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals. Last year, Ford was winning with women against a progressive party led by a woman, today’s he’s losing with women who are opting for a party with no leader.

Asked about their desire for change, 72% of voters expressed some support for a change in government while just 28% said Ford’s PC’s should be re-elected.

The Abacus poll isn’t an outlier. Polls from Pallas Data and Liaison strategies also show a drop in support for Ford.

Ford needs to find a vision

Some of this could be due to recent troublesome headlines for him such as the jet purchase and then reversal or the changes to the freedom of information act, but there appears to be something deeper going on. The Ford government seems adrift, they seem aimless, they have lost their reason for being in power.

Why does Doug Ford want to be premier, and what does he hope to accomplish?

These are questions that Ford and his team should be asking themselves, because voters are certainly wondering. If he wants to run and win the next election — which he has said he will run in — Ford better have a reason for asking for a fourth mandate.

Counting on a weak opposition is not a strategy

In his first election, Ford benefitted from facing off against the highly unpopular Kathleen Wynne. After 15 years of the Liberals being in power, voters were ready for a change and Ford was in the right spot at the right time.

In 2022, he faced a weak opposition still obsessed with the COVID-19 pandemic when voters were ready to move on. In 2025, Bonnie Crombie led a chaotic campaign that was still struggling with a provincial party structure that has never recovered from their crushing 2018 defeat.

When Ford faces his next opponent in a vote, likely in 2029, he will have been in power for 11 years.

As his campaign manager Kory Teneycke has said, every day you are in government, you add another pebble to the backpack you are carrying. Eventually the weight of all that time in office weighs on you, it impacts the way that voters see you and react.

Can Ford turn things around amid his sagging poll numbers?

Absolutely he can, though doing so will require him coming up with a vision for why he should remain in power, a vision that he can sell to the public.

Right now, that’s lacking.

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